global warming science without the hype

 "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored!" -Aldous Huxley   

It's amazing how many people go to the blogosphere for their news and science information. Unfortunately, many only read the news that aligns with their pre-existing notions.
   But when we contract a life-threatening illness, do we take this approach? Generally not. We want the absolute best surgeon we can find, regardless of their politics.

Please bear with us, this website is going thru extensive redesign
and the new site will be up soon!

9/5/09 Global temperature graphs:

This graph from NOAA shows the annual trend in average global air temperature in degrees Celsius, through 2008. For each year, the range of uncertainty is indicated by the vertical bars. The blue line tracks the changes in the trend over time. Image courtesy NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Global Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature Change, 1999-2008. Data sources: NASA GISS, UAH, RSS, HadCRUT

The above three graphs track temperature anomalies for northern, low, and southern latitudes. The black dotted line is the annual mean and the red solid line is the 5-year mean. Images courtesy NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis.

9/5/09 Global greenhouse gas (GHG) graph:

Global averages of the concentrations of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 from the NOAA global flask sampling network since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data prior to 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005].



Text of Doug's 2006 correspondence with Dr. James Hansen, the director of research at
NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, regarding earth temperature satellite data:

   On 8/18/06, Doug wrote:

 Dear Dr. Hansen,

I have been reviewing your greenhouse gas (GHG) studies which show a sharp acceleration in CO2 levels starting in the 1940's. Local global warming skeptics are arguing that "satellite readings show the planet cooled between 1940 and 1980." Is this correct? If so, how do we explain the discrepancy? (pollution?, volcanic activity?)

I know you are very busy and want to thank you in advance for taking the time to respond.

Doug Davis

    Dr. Hansen's reply:


Satellite measurements of temperature did not begin until 1979. Surface measurements show a small (~0.1C) cooling between 1940 and 1970. The reason for it is uncertain. The net human made GHG increases did not begin to increase sharply until about 1970. Since 1975 global temperature has increased 0.6C. The reason for the slight cooling after 1940 is uncertain, because we did not have measurements of all forcings, and 0.1C is small enough that it could be natural variability.

The "contrarians" who keep pointing at minor issues mostly have some reason for wanting to make the public believe that there are still big scientific uncertainties. They get much more attention than they deserve. It is too bad that our media always like to find a contrary voice for the sake of "balance" even when the science has become unbalanced and very clear.
-Jim Hansen 

Doug's 50 Year Crystal River Peak Streamflow Date Trend Analysis:

    I selected the Crystal River gauging station (USGS 09081600 CRYSTAL RIVER AB AVALANCHE CR, NEAR REDSTONE, CO) for it's lengthy record and it's native flows which are not affected by dams or diversions (there are only very minor irrigation diversions above this station).
   Please note these are preliminary results, sans leap year adjustment performed on the Julian calendar. The trendline is clearly moving towards earlier peak streamflows. The trend to earlier peaks also appears be accelerating as it is evident from the graph that more recent timeframes will generate a steeper trendline. (the data used for this graph is here)

Crystal River peak streamflow trendline

H. L. Mencken believed it is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting.

Some good non-biased global climate science links:

"Scientists report severe retreat of Arctic ice," pdf from NYTimes on NSIDC report, September 21, 2007

How a global climate model works  video from National Center for Atmospheric Research

How do we know the earth is warming now?  from National Center for Atmospheric Research

El Nino and La Nina  from National Center for Atmospheric Research 

"How can a gallon of gasoline produce 20 pounds of carbon dioxide?" from www.fueleconomy.gov

NASA: Goddard Institute for Space Studies

The National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC)  News and Analysis
I've linked here to their News and Analysis page. If you read nothing else here, read the first paragraph on the LH column.

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)

Website on climate science by working climate scientists: realclimate.org

Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo

University of Oxford  - Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics

Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts

MIT Atmospheric Sciences Department

Stanford University Cimate and Energy Project

Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research

Here is a link to a disturbing story of scientists being paid off to dispute global warming science:

Read about "Mr. Cool", ex-professor Timothy Ball, a popular Canadian speaker
This expose' was published in the Canadian newspaper GLOBE & MAIL August 12, 2006